The United States has experienced a series of turmoil in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic, influenza virus, multi-domain conflicts between China and the United States, natural disasters from climate change, discrimination and racial inequality, taxation and energy issues all had made the US financial environment under severe strain. The upcoming presidential election is full of uncertainties. So far, it is still unsure who will win the election. Republican and Democratic Party have different expected policies, and the election result will become one of the important key factors that affect the global economic market, stock market, and currency market.
Donald Trump -Republican Party Presidential Candidate
“Make America great again” campaign slogan is based on the America first, focusing on US economy and national development. Continue to be tough on China’s politics and trade policies, as well as trade agreements with other countries. Bringing jobs and factories back to the United States and reducing corporate taxes will continue the previous policy direction and there should be no major changes. Therefore, the stock market will be relatively stable, and the hot money stranded in the financial market may gradually enter the stock market.
Joe Biden- Democratic Party Presidential Candidates
“Battle for the Soul of the Nation” is the campaign slogan on Joe Biden, committed to resuming and strengthening the alliance between the United States and other countries in the world. The trade relations between the two sides tend to normalize, return to the traditional moderate trade diplomacy, relax tariffs, take into account that global economic cooperation and bring a certain degree of stability global affairs. Therefore, the continued appreciation of the US dollar creates more uncertainty. Biden proposed a policy on companies, raising the tax policy to 28%, and raising the minimum salary, which may affect the profitability of the company and lead to an impact on the momentum of US stocks. Launched antitrust investigations against large technology companies (FB, Google, Amazon), accuse these American tech giants are building illegal monopoly. The stock market may have strong fluctuations and decline.
The US presidential election has attracted global attention, but no matter who is elected, to resume past economic activities, only the vaccine is available to get rid of the epidemic and the global economy is active. This is the top priority and the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy will end. If the policy direction is correct and the investment is balanced, the stock market will have great potential. The U.S. election has experienced unprecedented pandemics, lockdowns, complete quarantine, global economic recession, widespread civil unrest, and extreme market volatility. Therefore, regardless of which candidate is elected, as an investor should be more cautious in the analysis, not to be anxious, judge calmly to choose a high-quality investment portfolio.