2020 is coming to an end! It feels like this year has gone extremely fast and slow at the same time. Several major events that have occurred this year have affected the entire world, whether in economics, politics, medicine, public health, etc. It seen a massive change and turbulent year. The health, life and income of the people have been massive affected.
A look back at 2020:
The Covid-19 pandemic began
The pandemic of the new coronavirus has infected tens of millions of people worldwide and causes of death. The implementation of policies such as city lockdowns has caused various country economic stagnation and severely damaged economic activities. The epidemic has not been suppressed until today, and the mutant virus has attacked again.
United States presidential election
President Trump is continuing to pursue legal challenges in multiple states to the US election results, despite state electors having formally nominated Democratic Party's Joe Biden as the next president. If there is no accident 1/20 Biden will enter the White House.
Natural and man-made disasters: Australia bushfire, Torrential floods in south China, California wildfires
Australia bushfire, the worst wildlife disaster in modern history, under the benefit of fossil energy, people ignored the crisis of climate change. California's severe wildfires burned at least 3 million acres of land, making the sky appear strange and orange, like the end of the world, and purgatory on earth. Climate change and excessive commercial development have caused people fight for roads with rivers, and disaster in southern China.
China-US relations, China-India relations
China and the United States are the two strongest countries in the 21st century. They are partners and rivals. Two countries have more obvious problems in trade, technology and international relations. China's "power" and territorial "expansion" have caused frequent military conflicts along the Sino-Indian border.
Interest rate adjustments in various countries; Negative U.S Oil prices; Stock Market Circuit Breakers
Coronavirus spread across the world, the stock prices of many countries hit the biggest single-day drop, the United States also triggered a circuit breaker mechanism, and the prices of commodities and virtual currencies also fluctuated greatly. Oil prices fell below zero for the first time, and countries continued to maintain Quantitative Easing policies to save their stock markets.
2021, continue to pay close attention in America’s presidential inauguration and the world’s response in business, politics, economics and medicine, to the coronavirus pandemic. The trend of the world has changed, future-gazing in 2021.
Global Trends
In 2021, Quantitative easing, low interest rates and fiscal relief programs in various countries will continue. The 5G industry and the prospects of artificial intelligence are also the goals of various industries.
Countries start rolling out coronavirus vaccines and began administering doses. The relative impact on the epidemic will be suppressed. The domestic consumption markets of various countries shell also gradually recover. The economic prospects for next year will be optimistic. But it is also necessary to diversify the layout of overseas investment to prevent new coronavirus variant that impacting the economies of countries again.
United States-Stock Market Trends
Need to pay attention the policies implemented after the Joe Biden entered the White House. The trend of China and the United States confrontation will not change, in term of trade, intellectual property (IP), human rights issues. But Biden’s approach will be more peaceful than Trump’s. Higher tariffs for other countries may be cancel; back to World Trade Organization (WTO) to reduce geopolitical risks; accelerate the development of the new energy industry; low interest rates, government relief measures and infrastructure expenditures. The restart of enterprises is expected to have a warming effect on the US economic recovery, and the stock market expected to keep climbing as condition look brighter in 2021.
United States-Forex Trends
Low interest rates will remain unchanged. Under the circumstance of Quantitative easing policy, global trade and economic growth will be promoted, and the depreciation of the dollar will become a trend. Unless that there are other unpredictable variables that lead to a restart of the safe-haven atmosphere, then the dollar may appreciate.
Oil Trends
During the outbreak of the epidemic, U.S Oil price fell below zero. After the enterprises restarted, freight transportation volume increased, oil demand and consumption gradually increased, it caused oil prices rebounded from the bottom stock to close to $50. However, still need to pay attention of the epidemic. Before the virus is completely eliminated, any economic blockade may put pressure on oil prices. Biden's promotion of clean energy may hit oil demand; therefore, the uncertainty of oil still exist.
Next year will definitely be more optimistic than this year. Vaccines in various countries have been release on the market, but can’t ignore risk and impact of coronavirus variants. Moreover, need to pay attention to whether Biden, as he said when he won the election, "Now it is time to turn the page, to unite, to heal." Leading the United States out of the predicament, because it will have a great influence on the global investment market atmosphere.
Wishing you all the best in the coming year!
